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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|